Implicazioni Strategiche della presenza delle Aziende Cinese all’Estero. IV Analisi conclusive

di Heino Klink

IV Parte  Analisi conclusive

L'acronimo comunemente usato di DIME (diplomatico, informativo, militare, economico) si riferisce ai vari strumenti del potere nazionale, che può essere equiparato a quello che nel precedente capitolo 5 è stato identificato come potere complessivo nazionale. Il DIME fornisce un quadro di riferimento per l'analisi dei mezzi a disposizione di un governo o di una nazione per raggiungere i suoi obiettivi.  Mentre alcuni aspetti del DIME sono maggiormente orientati all’hard power, come le forze militari, altri sono altrettanto chiaramente strumenti di soft power. Gli sforzi diplomatici sono generalmente considerati forme emblematiche di soft power. Le informazioni e gli aspetti economici possono essere invece classificati sia hard sia soft power in funzione di come vengono impiegati. Ad esempio, il dominio dell'informazione può migliorare le operazioni militari (hard power), ma le informazioni possono anche essere utilizzate per influenzare l'opinione pubblica (soft power). Le sanzioni economiche sono chiari esempi di hard power, mentre il successo economico può attrarre ammiratori e divenire soft power.

L’impressionante crescita del più grande paese in via di sviluppo al mondo è un problema economico e politico fondamentale. Conseguentemente, la crescita del potere cinese, sia hard che soft, a causa della sua dimensione globale, può essere valutato in termini di DIME. Come dimostrato nei capitoli precedenti, i suoi successi commerciali all’estero connotano, direttamente e indirettamente, un significante successo anche in altri settori. Si vuole qui proporre un’analisi di tale crescita, che riguarda sia aspetti hard che soft del potere cinese, secondo l’ottica DIME, partendo dalla semplice constatazione che lo sviluppo dei singoli strumenti di potere è fortemente influenzato dalle scelte di strategia economica compiute dalla Cina. Come argomentato nei precedenti capitoli, i successi commerciali all'estero alimentano, direttamente e indirettamente, una crescita significativa anche in altri settori. L'accesso delle aziende cinesi a risorse, tecnologie,  mercati ed elites si traduce in mezzi di influenza e di potere che possono essere sfruttati per una serie di obiettivi non necessariamente focalizzati soltanto sulla sfera commerciale. Utilizzando la struttura DIME, si propone un riepilogo di esempi, alcuni dei quali possono sovrapporsi, che sottolineano il legame tra la strategia economica del going global cinese e le sue implicazioni geopolitiche:

9.1  Fattore Diplomatico 

-     La Cina è diventata sempre più assertiva in  politica estera, data la sua posizione di forza economica e il declino dell'Occidente durante la recente crisi finanziaria;

-        La diplomazia cinese del petrolio ha portato a proteggere regimi illiberali come i governi di Khartoum e Teheran nonostante la condanna internazionale;

-     La Cina ha progressivamente assunto maggiori posizioni di leadership nei consessi internazionali: ONU, WTO, SCO, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) e Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

9.2  Fattore Informativo

-     La Cina offre a paesi spesso snobbati dall'Occidente una miscela di economia di mercato e leninismo, di diversità economica e di rigoroso controllo da parte di un unico partito politico come una valida alternativa alla democrazia;

-     Le minacce ufficiali e ufficiose della Cina di mettere in vendita i titoli del tesoro statunitense possono avere un effetto deterrente;

-     La Cina ha un ampio arsenale di argomentazioni per criticare l’ipocrisia americana quando alle aziende cinesi viene negata l’acquisizione di aziende statunitensi come nel caso di Maytag, Sprint, 3Com e Unocal.

9.3  Fattore Militare

-     Il successo economico ha consentito alla Cina di aumentare al 7,5% la spesa militare nel 2010;

-     La presenza commerciale cinese all'estero ha gradualmente assunto una prospettiva di sicurezza. Alcuni lavoratori sono stati infatti rapiti e uccisi in Afghanistan, Angola, Camerun, Etiopia, Niger, Sudan e Zambia, mentre altri commercianti sono stati presi di mira nelle Isole Salomone.  Contro questi episodi si sono levate molte voci che hanno chiesto di inviare l'esercito a proteggere i cinesi all'estero;

-     I commerci esteri cinesi possono facilitare l'acquisizione di tecnologie dual use;

-     Le politiche energetiche cinesi e la leadership nella SCO hanno dirette implicazioni militari e possono aver originato le pressioni sull’Uzbekistan e sul  Kirghizistan per espellere le forze americane.

9.4  Fattore Economico

-     La Cina esporta il proprio modello di crescita economica basato sulla stabilità sociale (senza valori democratici quali i diritti umani) come alternativa agli aiuti dell’Occidente ancorato ai propri valori tipici. Esempi significativi in tal senso si riscontrano in Birmania e in Venezuela;

-     In Africa, America Latina e Medio Oriente, la Cina ha rafforzato le sue relazioni economiche strategiche stabilendo forum di cooperazione e consigli d’affari al fine di garantirsi  l’accesso alle materie prime e consolidare i propri mercati di esportazione;

-     L’imponente consumo cinese di risorse naturali ha provocato un aumento della domanda globale e dei prezzi di petrolio, gas naturale, altri idrocarburi e di una serie di materie prime, creando in tal modo una grossa opportunità per i paesi in via di sviluppo.

Oggettivamente, non vi è alcuna prova conclusiva che l'ascesa della Cina sia qualcosa di diverso dal legittimo sviluppo e dall’espansione di un paese prospero ed in crescita. I cinesi sostengono, infatti, la tesi che la loro “ascesa” sia più simile a un “rinascimento” visto che, per ben 18 degli ultimi 20 secoli, la Cina è stata la più grande economia del mondo, e si risentono molto quando la “pacificità della loro ascesa” viene cinicamente messa in dubbio.

Tuttavia, anche gli osservatori occidentali  manifestano le proprie legittime preoccupazioni. Le tendenze mercantiliste cinesi, il comportamento internazionale sempre più assertivo e il patrocinio dei più discutibili regimi del pianeta hanno provocato allarme e trepidazione.  Robert Kagan ha scritto: “Il potere può cambiare le nazioni. Esso fa espandere i loro bisogni e desideri, fa aumentare il loro convincimento di avere diritti, il loro bisogno di avere deferenza e rispetto. E le rende anche più ambiziose. Fa diminuire la loro tolleranza agli ostacoli, la loro volontà di accettare un no come risposta.”[1]  La domanda  che il mondo si sta ponendo al momento è se questo sarà “il secolo cinese” e se le correlate connotazioni positive supereranno quelle negative.

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[1] “Less Biding and Hiding,” The Economist, December 4, 2010, 9.